International monetary fund (IMF) on six
Oct 2015 published World Economic Outlook (WEO) Oct 2015 Update titled
Adjusting to lower commodity prices.
The
report projects global growth for 2015 at 3.1 percent, which is 0.3 percentage
point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in the
July 2015 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update.
India’s
growth is predicted to strengthen from 7.3
p.c 2015 and last year to 7.5 p.c in
2016. Also, Domestic demand in India is projected to stay strong.
Global
Outlook for 2015-16
·
Global growth is projected to decline from 3.4 p.c in 2014 to
3.1 p.c in 2015, before picking up to 3.6 p.c in 2016
·
The decline in growth in 2015 reflects a further slowdown in
emerging markets, partially offset by a modest pickup in activity in advanced
economies—particularly in the euro area. This pickup, supported by the decline
in oil prices and accommodative financial policy, will modestly narrow output
gaps.
·
The decline in growth in emerging markets, for the fifth year in
a row, reflects a combination of factors and they are
1. a)
Weaker growth in oil exporters
2. b)
Slowdown in China
3. c) The
pattern of growth becomes less reliant on investment
4. d)
Weaker outlook for exporters of other commodities, including in Latin America,
following price declines
·
The sizable pickup in projected 2016 growth reflects stronger
performance in both emerging market and advanced economies.
·
Among rising market and developing economies, growth in
countries in economic distress in 2015 including Brazil, Russia, and a few
countries in Latin America and within the Mideast, whereas remaining weak or
negative, is projected to be higher than in 2015. Domestic demand in India is
projected to remain strong.
·
These developments more than offset the projected continuation
of the slowdown in China. Among advanced economies, higher growth reflects a
strengthening recovery in Japan, the us, and the euro area, as output gaps
gradually close.
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